Doctrine and Training Centre on future security environment and more

The conference will be held on November 16-20, 2020, and many senior commanders of the Polish Armed Forces and NATO, as well as a large group of domestic and foreign security experts and academics have declared their participation.

The GlobState III conference is another undertaking carried out by DTC as part of the security environment and operating environment analysis campaign under the name "Nowe Urządzenie Polskie" (“New Polish Battle Order”) – NUP 2X35. NUP 2X35 was initiated one and a half years ago by Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Armed Forces as a project, the essence of which is to start a debate aimed at defining what the "battle order" of the Polish Armed Forces in the 21st century should look like. The basis for this, however, must be the identification and analysis of the leading trends and factors in the security environment of Poland in the coming years. This, in turn, will allow us to identify changes in the operational environment in which our armed forces will operate, and then to prepare them for use so that they can meet future challenges. The NUP 2X35 campaign upon the instruction of the Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Armed Forces is coordinated by Doctrine and Training Centre. This institution, which within a few years has grown to the rank of a military think tank, has significant intellectual potential and is the organizer of many academic projects. Only as part of the NUP 2X35 campaign, DTC has organized, apart from scientific conferences from the GlobState series (GlobState I and GlobState II), about 20 seminars and webinars with the participation of academics and experts dealing with broadly understood security issues. Communities of experts from several dozen universities and academic institutions gathered around the DTC, leading debates on geopolitics, economy, climate, urbanization, demography, technology development and the impact of these factors on state security and the conduct of operations by the armed forces.

In the contemporary world, armed conflicts are not the only threat, and state security has many dimensions. Hence, analyzes on this subject must go beyond strictly military issues – in the field of strategy, operational art or tactics. The world continues to surprise us, new threats and challenges appear all the time. The most recent example is the COVID-19 pandemic, which "demolished" our current lives and challenged the entire international community, all states, their economies, health systems and security systems, including the armed forces. So, we experience with our own eyes a kind of state resistance testing. Comprehensive, multi-domain analyzes under the NUP 2X35 campaign are intended to do just that, by answering the questions – how to prepare the state and its armed forces for new threats resulting from globalization processes, from competition in cyberspace and in introducing new technologies, from climate and demographic changes, as well as cataclysms like the current pandemic.

We can see that the changes taking place in the security environment, and indirectly in the operational environment, are becoming more and more surprising, multidimensional, complex and even difficult to predict. When planning operations, commanders and their staff often have to go beyond strictly military knowledge. They need an understanding of

geopolitical, macroeconomic, social, climatic and technological phenomena. Therefore, the main goal of the NUP 2X35 campaign is to develop a new perspective on the development and to prepare the Polish Armed Forces to act in response to identified challenges.

Doctrine and Training Centre invited a wide group of academics and experts, both military and civilian, to work under NUP 2X35. Thanks to this, a space was created which, on the one hand, enables the armed forces to absorb expert knowledge from the academic community, and, on the other hand, gives universities and research and development centers a chance to disseminate research results, and thus to influence the civilian environment for the pro-defense education of society. The place of discussion are academic and scientific conferences, workshops, seminars, and recently – due to the pandemic – mainly the Internet and online webinars.

The results of this work were used by the authors of the National Security Strategy. They also constitute a significant contribution to the Multidomain Operational Concept of the Polish Armed Forces developed by the General Staff. Analyzes under the NUP 2X35 campaign also arouse response and interest in NATO structures and centers of excellence, i.e. where operational concepts and analyses for the entire Alliance, including Strategic Foresight Analysis, are developed. DTC officers – analysts also have a share in them, presenting our work and national position throughout NATO. With this in mind, the upcoming GlobState III conference will have an international dimension, with the participation of civilian experts and academics, as well as military practitioners from many NATO Member States. Previous GlobState conferences were aimed at defining the challenges for Poland in the context of changes in the security environment. The current one will present these challenges from the perspective of Central and Eastern Europe, and will also take up the subject of changes in the principles of war and operational art. The several-day debate will be divided into several thematic areas, and presentations and discussions will be held in separate panels. Below are the main issues of the debate:

· future security environment and operational environment: the NATO’s eastern flank perspective;

· geopolitical changes in the 21st century;

· future security environment in the post-pandemic world;

· cyberspace threats and operations;

· challenges of new technologies on the modern battlefield;

· principles of operational art in theory and practice;

· multi-domain operation vs. joint operation;

· security environment analysis methodology;

· future military leadership.

Due to the international nature of the conference, it will be held in English. Bearing in mind the COVID-19 pandemic, it will be carried out using a hybrid method, primarily on-line. Its organizational details can be found on the website www.cdissz.wp.mil.pl/en in the “GlobState III” tab.

In the coming days, interested parties will be presented with the exact program of the conference, and further information and announcements will also be made available.

Detailed conclusions and summaries of the panel discussions will be available daily during the conference on a website of CDiS SZ.

The Article has been prepared by Doctrine and Training Centre.