The World Defense Show as a signal of broader strategic and industrial reflection [OPINION]

This year, for the first time in history, Defence24.pl presents comprehensive access to materials describing the World Defense Show from the inside for Polish readers (Dr. Robert Czulda attended the 2nd edition of WDS). WDS 2024 took place on a classic Middle Eastern scale in Riyadh, the capital of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Moreover, the strong representation of Polish arms companies is a positive sign. However, regardless of all the hardware topics discussed and shown there and their political connotations, we need to face a primary, even strategic, question, which we should ask ourselves more often in Poland. More precisely, why events such as WDS 2024 and, more broadly, Arab arms issues should be analyzed more closely by us.

Middle Eastern arms market - real money and increasing competition

So let us start with the most straightforward issue: the Arabs (both the Saudis and the Emiratis with their IDEX exhibition - they are organized alternately with WDS) are currently open to arms cooperation with anyone in the world, perhaps except the Iranian arms industry. Therefore, WDS and IDEX constitute an excellent platform for Western solutions to prove themselves in the fully competitive arms market of the 21st century, where we (EU and US firms) have to compete with the Russians, the Chinese, the Koreans, and the Turks. In addition, in the conditions of specific diplomatic relations, political culture, and trade rules in the region. This market is a question about the best solutions and long-term strategies to support trade relations, cooperation, and military diplomacy.

For example, let us note that the Korean arms industry is supported by its mission in the United Arab Emirates. Not to mention the presence of players such as the USA and France supported with their state and military apparatus in the context of the Middle East. Let us also note that Vladimir Putin’s visits to the countries of the region, which we perceive (which is also true) as merely supporting Russia, are not only propaganda activities because the attempts of the Russian side aimed at maintaining their weapons in the Middle East are all too visible, especially when the Russians have to explain their increasingly strong arms relations with Iran. Of course, nowadays, we can ethically offend and criticize Arab countries for their attitude towards Russian aggression against Ukraine, but this does not change the state of affairs in the region and, as can be seen after the WDS, all key actors show up diligently, most often with their best military solutions or future technologies. Because WDS or IDEX is an element of the market mentioned above positioning, it should also be noted that they are not the final element creating opportunities for cooperation with local recipients.

All this is happening for two important strategic reasons, i.e., the army and the security apparatus of the Middle Eastern countries are areas on which they will not save due to the assessment of their security environment. Simultaneously, issues such as energy resources, although not only do they allow financing many of the long-term purchases. On the other hand, an uncertain future in the Middle East region will create space for the newest military technologies, as evidenced by the constant instability of Yemen, not to mention the future of Saudi-Iranian relations. In the latter case, most likely, even the broker of agreement between the authorities in Riyadh and Tehran, i.e., the People’s Republic of China, does not assume that there has been a long-term and strategic weakening of the rivalry. This specific security environment, in turn, creates a need for further arms contracts and continuous modernization and improvement of existing arsenals.

Arab countries want to have their arms industries in their portfolio of regional and international policies

Nevertheless, Arab countries do not hide their political and technological aspirations to enter other markets, including African ones. For now, it is a hybrid action, as in the case of supporting the parties to the war in Libya. Where solutions imported from, e.g., Russia, have been included in military aid, but there are also aspirations to send our products. This status should be analyzed, especially in terms of the diverse range of armored vehicles, especially wheeled ones, and MRAPs. Let us compare this with the, unfortunately, constant discussion about the increase in production in the European arms industry in response to the demand created by Ukraine’s defense war and the draining of NATO countries« reserves with slower progress.

Today, it is possible that other countries will come to, for example, the EDGE group with a list of needs in terms of ammunition, missiles, and even vehicles. The same applies to the Saudis if their projects become equally dynamic, and this is at least likely. Generally, in the face of the so-called ammunition hunger in Russia, DPRK and Iran are getting financial benefits. In the context of the West, producers from India, Pakistan, or exactly the Arab countries may also start to gain. The war in Ukraine (for Europe), but also Yemen and Gaza, strategic uncertainty in the relations of states in the Indo-Pacific region, several conflicts, and dormant armed conflicts in Africa are revolutionizing the approach to the issue of arms and arms industries. However, today, in Europe, we must say openly that no one will wait for us in such favorable global conditions, which create great international uncertainty. That is why President Emmanuel Macron’s words about the „war economy” at the Eurosatory fair were so important, not only from a European perspective.

It should be added that Arab arms companies are increasingly exhibiting at European fairs, an example of which was last year’s DSEI in London. Emphasizing that Defence24 was on site in London and the editorial representatives could assess how much exposure Arab entities in the arms sector were beginning to exhibit, supported, notably, by delegations from their countries, often with high-ranking officials and military officials.

Fighting against long-standing stereotypes and simplifications

However, focusing on internationalization would be too simplistic in this case, first of all, because it would refer to the common stereotype relating to the contractual arms market in the Middle East, which was defined as spending vast sums of money and bombarding local countries with external technological solutions. In 2021, the author pointed out in Defence24 that such images from the end of the 20th century are downright dangerous when analyzing this market - IDEX 2021: Arab countries are investing in their own weapons COMMENT. It is worth mentioning the study by Dr. Robert Czulda entitled WDS24: Saudi Arabia wants to be independent in terms of arms CORRESPONDENCE FROM RIYADH, clearly dealing with the new image of the Saudi arms industry.

It follows from reading them that the Middle Eastern countries have imposed plans for the development of their defense industries and are consistently implementing them. No one in the world is questioning the Emirati EDGE Group’s position anymore, but the role of Saudi companies is also no longer marginal. Especially since the country’s authorities« Vision 2030 also sets specific goals for this sector of the Saudi economy. Observing the momentum of WDS 2024, it is worth looking not only at what is proposed there from the outside but also at local entities« growing strength, diversity, and aspirations.

The main point is that these are relatively young entities in market presence. Therefore, on the one hand, they must be more flexible in finding market niches but also seek broad foreign cooperation. On the other hand, their growth is based on the understanding that all actions will have to assume recognition of our current reflection on balancing the factors of quantity and quality. It is another essential factor that should be noted, which is the basis for the need for a broader analysis of Middle Eastern arms companies and their exhibition activities.

Let us be honest when in Europe before 2022, military issues were treated quite specifically due to the illusion of a peace dividend (and even after 2014-15, i.e., the first Russian invasion of Ukraine and the illegal shift of borders), no one in the Middle East downplayed armaments. It refers to asymmetric actions and the possibility of a regional conflict breaking out, where the fighting parties could have a comparable range of forces and resources at their disposal. This state of affairs also translated into the importance of technological advantage, especially in countries with smaller populations than Iran. Hence, from the beginning of developing new models of defense companies, the process of finding a balance between production capabilities and investing in research and development (R&D) has been visible.

We must also remember that the Middle East has learned some lessons from being too technologically dependent on entities from outside the region. For years, it was stereotypically believed that the West could allow armaments in the Middle East because they would still have simple control over it from the technological side. Therefore, today, it is so crucial for companies and the governments supporting them to create a more sustainable environment in which they operate, which is strategically understandable, especially when we see the new generation of rulers in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates transferring new models to various spheres of their economy. 

This revolution refers to attempts to check some of the production on its soil and to constantly work with contracts and agreements in intergovernmental and business formats. So that in the event of a crisis, also with the West, no matter what we say - as the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia experienced in the face of turbulence in US relations - Arab states are not limited. Not to mention that the imagination of those in power and the presidents of local companies may be strongly influenced by the changes that have taken place in the Turkish arms industry. Fundamental are Turkish lessons learned from observing actions that allow the authorities in Ankara to make a real profit from arms exports combined with typical political activities in various world regions. 

We need to accept that the modern Arab system of military and industrial cohesion is much more complicated than it can be presented, for example, in textbooks describing the rules of the Middle East from the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century.

The Arabs are building an approach to the arms industry tailored to the 21st century.

It should also be noted that countries such as the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates are building their arms sectors based on the vision of emerging and disruptive technologies. To put it more clearly, they do not have to deal with the effects of the pre-digital revolution because they have already started to operate based on 21st-century technologies. It is not without reason that WDS and IDEX strongly emphasize C5ISTAR solutions and unmanned systems (after all, they have been shaping the realities of operations in the Middle Eastern battlefields for years), but also all talk about the role of Artificial Intelligence and the cyber and space domains.

Therefore, we must recognize that the arms industries of Arab countries will not only strive to slowly develop their presence in hardware niches based, for example, solely on quantity defined by production capacity. Their expansion plans already include assumptions relating to advanced technology sectors. It must be seen in the broader context of the technological transformation of the Middle East.

In conclusion, we must recognize that many of our long-held views on Middle Eastern arms issues must be seriously revised and treated more carefully. Starting with the experience from Ukraine, when suddenly the Russians began to use Iranian Shahid flying bomb (unmanned) systems. However, above all, keeping in mind a new wave of changes, perhaps even a kind of revolution in the Arab countries. They are still an exciting market, so we need to be glad that Polish companies are present at WDS, but this space has had its rules changed a long time ago.

On the other hand, currently, the question is whether these will remain the same rules of the game beyond the region itself, especially in those mentioned above growing international tension and the urgent search for weapons, ammunition, and armament by numerous countries. Therefore, in answer to whether such topics, which may sound enigmatic at first glance, such as WDS, IDEX, SAMI, EDGE, etc., should become more and more attractive to us in Poland. Given the current dynamics of international events, the question may be whether we are doing it early enough. We should be encouraged to read all reports and studies on WDS in Defence24 and reflect more broadly on their basis.