Expert: Defending Ukrainian Airspace with Assets Stationed In Poland Would Mean Involvement in the Conflict

Dmytro Kuleba, head of the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs considered a solution in which Patriot systems stationed in Poland, would be involved in protecting the airspace over Western Ukraine, as one that is realistic. In his opinion, the Western nations could lease their air defence systems to Ukraine, with those systems defending both Ukraine and Western states, from Russian missiles and drones.

Brig. General (res.) Tomasz Drewniak noted that although technically feasible, politically it would translate into NATO becoming a part of the armed conflict. „Three aspects need to be distinguished here - purely technical, military, and political. To make the air defence systems effective, it would be desirable for them to receive early warning radar data, allowing them to prepare. This means, for those systems to function well, that the whole Ukrainian radar system should be plugged into the NATO system, or our radars should be deployed in the Ukrainian territory, to ensure higher levels of lethality. Of course, these may be arranged along the border, but the effectiveness would be much lower then”, Drewniak told Defence24.pl.

“Technically this is feasible, but when it comes to military and political aspects, I cannot imagine a situation in which NATO, as essentially we mean the Alliance here, provides air defence coverage for Ukraine. This would translate into NATO joining the war, as the first downing of a Russian aircraft, or any other flying system, automatically sees NATO joining the war”, Expert at Stratpoints noted.

He pointed out that it is a variant differing from the scenario requesting the West to implement a No-Fly Zone over Ukraine. „Deploying air defence assets along the border would not change anything. Throughout the last 6 months of Russian airstrikes, a couple of them fell close (ca. 100 kilometres from the border of Poland). If the systems were stationed in Poland and in a couple of states neighbouring Ukraine, like Slovakia, Romania, and Bulgaria, a line along which they would be lethal could be drawn. But today, these areas are not intensely attacked. Truly, this does not change anything in a military dimension, while politically it would get us all involved in a serious conflict. The political decisions made so far exclude such a scenario”, he noted.

„This is a return to, somewhat understandable, attempts to get NATO involved in the conflict. It is impossible to shoot down someone’s aircraft also remaining uninvolved as a side of the conflict”, he added.

Drewniak noted that if these systems were to be Ukrainian, they would need to be operated by Ukrainian crews, and they should also wear Ukrainian designations. “Even if they are leased, as formulas as such are common in the Armed Forces, they would need to remain under complete Ukrainian control. No situation can occur in which one country leases a lethal system from another one. When one state transfers a weapons system, it may provide training, but it cannot use it in combat”, he said. He noted that “historically speaking, the American and Soviet advisors, during the Cold War, helped in using the systems and provided technical support, but never did they fight, as this would automatically mean involvement in the conflict”.

Andrzej Grzyb, Chairman of the Parliamentary Defence Commission (PSL-TD) shares this opinion: the solution suggested by the head of the Ukrainian diplomacy would translate into involvement in the conflict. „I am rather skeptical when it comes to such solutions. Reacting to incidents 100 km inside the territory of a neighbouring state, kinetic operations, are involvement in the war”, he added. He noted that the provision of material and training aid shall be continued, but this form of support has a different nature.

In early April, following another Russian airstrike, Volodymyr Zelenski said that Ukraine needed 25 Patriot batteries. Systems as such were provided to Ukraine by Germany and the US. A couple of days ago they announced that the fourth battery would be sent to Ukraine immediately. Patriot launchers and missiles were also supplied to Kyiv by the Netherlands. The Germans also provided Ukraine with IRIS-T systems, and self-propelled Gepard AAA platforms. France provided Ukraine with SAMP/T systems. Poland supplied its Newa SC and Osa SAM systems to Ukraine as well.