East Front News #13: Poland and Estonia Focus on Defence Spending, Korean Launchers, and Belarusian Aircraft Violating Airspace

Estonia Boosts Defence Spending to Catch Up with Poland

Estonia will significantly increase its defence spending, aiming to rank just behind Poland in terms of the percentage of GDP allocated to military expenditures. As of 2022, Tallinn spent around 2% of its GDP on defence, in line with NATO guidelines. However, the war in Ukraine and the growing threat from Russia have prompted calls for increased security spending. In July of this year, discussions were held about reaching a target of 4% of GDP within two years, which would set a record alongside Poland. Between 2025 and 2028, Estonia plans to invest nearly 6.4 billion euros in the defence sector, raising its annual expenditure to 3.7% of GDP. Estonia urgently needs armaments and is particularly interested in acquiring additional products from Poland. At the same time, the country is focusing on developing its own defence industry, including producing drones. It should also be noted that Estonia has provided Ukraine with military aid equivalent to nearly 40% of its annual defence budget and over 0.8% of its GDP—more than any other country on a per capita basis. Tallinn is acutely aware that Moscow’s military capabilities far exceed its own. Therefore, in addition to relying on NATO and potential military support from allies, Estonia has decided to adopt a defensive stance, with defence investments at the highest levels. Furthermore, the production of combat ammunition is set to begin next year, with a new production line being established at the Amari military base. Estonia’s increased defence spending clearly reflects its determination to strengthen its military capabilities and readiness to respond to growing regional threats.

Belarusian Aircraft Violates Ukrainian Airspace

The Ukrainian Air Force reported an incident involving an aircraft that crossed the Ukrainian state border from Belarusian territory. The event took place near the border of the Kyiv and Zhytomyr regions. The aircraft eventually turned back towards Belarus. The plane in question was a Yak-130, commonly used for training Belarusian military pilots. The incident is likely the result of either pilot error or a navigation failure. This marks yet another instance of Belarusian or Russian aircraft violating Ukrainian airspace. Additionally, in recent months, aircraft have been intercepted multiple times after entering NATO airspace.

On Arms Smuggling from Ukraine to Poland: After the Conflict, We Will Be Both a Destination and Transit Country

„We are preparing for what may happen when the conflict beyond our eastern border ends, as we anticipate similar situations to those seen after the Balkan wars,” said Inspector Cezary Luba, commander of Poland’s Central Bureau of Investigation (CBŚP), in an interview with InfoSecurity24.pl. Weapons are finding their way to criminal groups in Western Europe and Scandinavia, and given the international nature of organized crime, some of these weapons remain on our market as well. In 2024, we are bracing for the challenges that will arise when the war in Ukraine concludes. This involves more than just arms smuggling. Post-conflict countries often face situations where individuals involved in combat need to find a new role once the conflict ends. We expect that some may join organized criminal groups, including within our own borders. We must be prepared for that too.

Economic Incentives for Employers of Territorial Defence Soldiers

The Sejm, Poland’s Parliament, has sent a government bill aimed at supporting entrepreneurs who employ territorial defence and active reserve soldiers for further consideration. All parliamentary factions expressed support for the bill. The proposed legislation introduces financial incentives, such as tax breaks for companies employing WOT (Territorial Defence Forces) volunteers, as well as preferences in public procurement tenders. This amendment seeks to alleviate tensions arising from conflicts between employee duties and military service obligations. It also aims to encourage the employment of soldiers in territorial military service and active reserves, particularly in light of the ongoing migration crisis at the Belarus border and efforts related to flood recovery.

More Korean Launchers in Poland; Negotiations for the Second Executive Agreement on K2 Underway

The 16th Mechanized Division has received another batch of South Korean K239 Chunmoo multiple rocket artillery launchers, with Poland having ordered a total of 290 units. It is anticipated that some of these launchers will eventually be mounted on Polish chassis. Additionally, negotiations for a second executive contract concerning K2 tanks are in progress. In August, five more K2 tanks were delivered to Poland under the current contract. This brings Poland’s total to over 50 K2 tanks, with plans to reach 84 by the end of the year. In July, PGZ (Polska Grupa Zbrojeniowa) and Hyundai Rotem signed an agreement for the production of these tanks in Poland.

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East Front News is a weekly newsletter and article on Defence24.com summarizing the past week’s most important events concerning security and the situation in the Central and Eastern Europe region. It includes original opinions and comments, along with key news items significant from a Polish perspective.

Aleksander Olech, PhD & Jakub Palowski, Deputy Ed. in Chief